Early estimation of the case fatality rate of COVID-19 in mainland China: a data-driven analysis
Identifieur interne : 000817 ( an2020/Analysis ); précédent : 000816; suivant : 000818Early estimation of the case fatality rate of COVID-19 in mainland China: a data-driven analysis
Auteurs : Shu Yang [République populaire de Chine] ; Peihua Cao [République populaire de Chine] ; Peipei Du [République populaire de Chine] ; Ziting Wu [République populaire de Chine, États-Unis] ; Zian Zhuang [République populaire de Chine] ; Lin Yang [République populaire de Chine] ; Xuan Yu [République populaire de Chine] ; Qi Zhou [République populaire de Chine] ; Xixi Feng [République populaire de Chine] ; Xiaohui Wang [République populaire de Chine] ; Weiguo Li [République populaire de Chine] ; Enmei Liu [République populaire de Chine] ; Ju Chen [République populaire de Chine] ; Yaolong Chen [République populaire de Chine] ; Daihai He [République populaire de Chine]Source :
- Annals of Translational Medicine [ 2305-5839 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
An ongoing outbreak of pneumonia caused by a novel coronavirus [severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV)-2], named COVID-19, hit a major city of China, Wuhan in December 2019 and subsequently spread to other provinces/regions of China and overseas. Several studies have been done to estimate the basic reproduction number in the early phase of this outbreak, yet there are no reliable estimates of case fatality rate (CFR) for COVID-19 to date.
In this study, we used a purely data-driven statistical method to estimate the CFR in the early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak. Daily numbers of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths were collected from January 10 to February 3, 2020 and divided into three clusters: Wuhan city, other cities of Hubei province, and other provinces of mainland China. Simple linear regression model was applied to estimate the CFR from each cluster.
We estimated that CFR during the first weeks of the epidemic ranges from 0.15% (95% CI: 0.12–0.18%) in mainland China excluding Hubei through 1.41% (95% CI: 1.38–1.45%) in Hubei province excluding the city of Wuhan to 5.25% (95% CI: 4.98–5.51%) in Wuhan.
Our early estimates suggest that the CFR of COVID-19 is lower than the previous coronavirus epidemics caused by SARS-CoV and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV).
Url:
DOI: 10.21037/atm.2020.02.66
PubMed: 32175421
PubMed Central: 7049028
Affiliations:
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country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Xiaohui" sort="Wang, Xiaohui" uniqKey="Wang X" first="Xiaohui" last="Wang">Xiaohui Wang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff11">School of Public Health,<institution>Lanzhou University</institution>,<addr-line>Lanzhou 730000</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Weiguo" sort="Li, Weiguo" uniqKey="Li W" first="Weiguo" last="Li">Weiguo Li</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff12">Department of Respiratory, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Child Development and Disorders, National Clinical Research Center for Child Health and Disorders, China International Science and Technology Cooperation base of Child development and Critical Disorders,<institution>Children’s Hospital of Chongqing Medical University</institution>,<addr-line>Chongqing 400014</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff13"><institution>Chongqing Key Laboratory of Pediatrics</institution>,<addr-line>Chongqing 400014</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Liu, Enmei" sort="Liu, Enmei" uniqKey="Liu E" first="Enmei" last="Liu">Enmei Liu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff12">Department of Respiratory, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Child Development and Disorders, National Clinical Research Center for Child Health and Disorders, China International Science and Technology Cooperation base of Child development and Critical Disorders,<institution>Children’s Hospital of Chongqing Medical University</institution>,<addr-line>Chongqing 400014</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff13"><institution>Chongqing Key Laboratory of Pediatrics</institution>,<addr-line>Chongqing 400014</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chen, Ju" sort="Chen, Ju" uniqKey="Chen J" first="Ju" last="Chen">Ju Chen</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">College of Medical Information Engineering,<institution>Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine</institution>,<addr-line>Chengdu 611137</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chen, Yaolong" sort="Chen, Yaolong" uniqKey="Chen Y" first="Yaolong" last="Chen">Yaolong Chen</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff9">Evidence-Based Medicine Center, School of Basic Medical Sciences,<institution>Lanzhou University</institution>,<addr-line>Lanzhou 730000</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff14"><institution>WHO Collaborating Centre for Guideline Implementation and Knowledge Translation</institution>,<addr-line>Lanzhou 730000</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de 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of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">32175421</idno><idno type="pmc">7049028</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7049028</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:7049028</idno><idno type="doi">10.21037/atm.2020.02.66</idno><date when="2020">2020</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000676</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000676</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000676</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000676</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Checkpoint">000151</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Checkpoint">000151</idno><idno 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populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Cao, Peihua" sort="Cao, Peihua" uniqKey="Cao P" first="Peihua" last="Cao">Peihua Cao</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff3">Clinical Research Center, Zhujiang Hospital,<institution>Southern Medical University</institution>,<addr-line>Guangzhou 510280</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Du, Peipei" sort="Du, Peipei" uniqKey="Du P" first="Peipei" last="Du">Peipei Du</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff4">School of Public Health,<institution>Chengdu Medical College</institution>,<addr-line>Chengdu 610500</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wu, Ziting" sort="Wu, Ziting" uniqKey="Wu Z" first="Ziting" last="Wu">Ziting Wu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff5">School of Public Health,<institution>Peking University</institution>,<addr-line>Beijing 100191</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff6">School of Public Health,<institution>Yale University</institution>,<addr-line>New Haven, CT</addr-line>,<country>USA</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhuang, Zian" sort="Zhuang, Zian" uniqKey="Zhuang Z" first="Zian" last="Zhuang">Zian Zhuang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff7">Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Lin" sort="Yang, Lin" uniqKey="Yang L" first="Lin" last="Yang">Lin Yang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff8">School of Nursing, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Yu, Xuan" sort="Yu, Xuan" uniqKey="Yu X" first="Xuan" last="Yu">Xuan Yu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff9">Evidence-Based Medicine Center, School of Basic Medical Sciences,<institution>Lanzhou University</institution>,<addr-line>Lanzhou 730000</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Zhou, Qi" sort="Zhou, Qi" uniqKey="Zhou Q" first="Qi" last="Zhou">Qi Zhou</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff10"><institution>The First Clinical Medical College of Lanzhou University</institution>,<addr-line>Lanzhou 730000</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Feng, Xixi" sort="Feng, Xixi" uniqKey="Feng X" first="Xixi" last="Feng">Xixi Feng</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff4">School of Public Health,<institution>Chengdu Medical College</institution>,<addr-line>Chengdu 610500</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wang, Xiaohui" sort="Wang, Xiaohui" uniqKey="Wang X" first="Xiaohui" last="Wang">Xiaohui Wang</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff11">School of Public Health,<institution>Lanzhou University</institution>,<addr-line>Lanzhou 730000</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Li, Weiguo" sort="Li, Weiguo" uniqKey="Li W" first="Weiguo" last="Li">Weiguo Li</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff12">Department of Respiratory, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Child Development and Disorders, National Clinical Research Center for Child Health and Disorders, China International Science and Technology Cooperation base of Child development and Critical Disorders,<institution>Children’s Hospital of Chongqing Medical University</institution>,<addr-line>Chongqing 400014</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff13"><institution>Chongqing Key Laboratory of Pediatrics</institution>,<addr-line>Chongqing 400014</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Liu, Enmei" sort="Liu, Enmei" uniqKey="Liu E" first="Enmei" last="Liu">Enmei Liu</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff12">Department of Respiratory, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Child Development and Disorders, National Clinical Research Center for Child Health and Disorders, China International Science and Technology Cooperation base of Child development and Critical Disorders,<institution>Children’s Hospital of Chongqing Medical University</institution>,<addr-line>Chongqing 400014</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff13"><institution>Chongqing Key Laboratory of Pediatrics</institution>,<addr-line>Chongqing 400014</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chen, Ju" sort="Chen, Ju" uniqKey="Chen J" first="Ju" last="Chen">Ju Chen</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff1">College of Medical Information Engineering,<institution>Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine</institution>,<addr-line>Chengdu 611137</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Chen, Yaolong" sort="Chen, Yaolong" uniqKey="Chen Y" first="Yaolong" last="Chen">Yaolong Chen</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff9">Evidence-Based Medicine Center, School of Basic Medical Sciences,<institution>Lanzhou University</institution>,<addr-line>Lanzhou 730000</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff14"><institution>WHO Collaborating Centre for Guideline Implementation and Knowledge Translation</institution>,<addr-line>Lanzhou 730000</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff15"><institution>GIN (Guidelines International Network) Asia</institution>,<addr-line>Lanzhou 730000</addr-line>,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff16">Key Laboratory of Evidence Based Medicine and Knowledge Translation of Gansu Province,<institution>Lanzhou University</institution>,<addr-line>Lanzhou 730000</addr-line>,<country>China</country></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="He, Daihai" sort="He, Daihai" uniqKey="He D" first="Daihai" last="He">Daihai He</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff7">Department of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong,<country>China</country>;</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">République populaire de Chine</country><wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Annals of Translational Medicine</title><idno type="ISSN">2305-5839</idno><idno type="eISSN">2305-5847</idno><imprint><date when="2020">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Background</title><p>An ongoing outbreak of pneumonia caused by a novel coronavirus [severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV)-2], named COVID-19, hit a major city of China, Wuhan in December 2019 and subsequently spread to other provinces/regions of China and overseas. Several studies have been done to estimate the basic reproduction number in the early phase of this outbreak, yet there are no reliable estimates of case fatality rate (CFR) for COVID-19 to date.</p></sec><sec><title>Methods</title><p>In this study, we used a purely data-driven statistical method to estimate the CFR in the early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak. Daily numbers of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths were collected from January 10 to February 3, 2020 and divided into three clusters: Wuhan city, other cities of Hubei province, and other provinces of mainland China. Simple linear regression model was applied to estimate the CFR from each cluster.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>We estimated that CFR during the first weeks of the epidemic ranges from 0.15% (95% CI: 0.12–0.18%) in mainland China excluding Hubei through 1.41% (95% CI: 1.38–1.45%) in Hubei province excluding the city of Wuhan to 5.25% (95% CI: 4.98–5.51%) in Wuhan.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusions</title><p>Our early estimates suggest that the CFR of COVID-19 is lower than the previous coronavirus epidemics caused by SARS-CoV and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV).</p></sec></div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>République populaire de Chine</li><li>États-Unis</li></country></list><tree><country name="République populaire de Chine"><noRegion><name sortKey="Yang, Shu" sort="Yang, Shu" uniqKey="Yang S" first="Shu" last="Yang">Shu Yang</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Cao, Peihua" sort="Cao, Peihua" uniqKey="Cao P" first="Peihua" last="Cao">Peihua Cao</name><name sortKey="Chen, Ju" sort="Chen, Ju" uniqKey="Chen J" first="Ju" last="Chen">Ju Chen</name><name sortKey="Chen, Yaolong" sort="Chen, Yaolong" uniqKey="Chen Y" first="Yaolong" last="Chen">Yaolong Chen</name><name sortKey="Chen, Yaolong" sort="Chen, Yaolong" uniqKey="Chen Y" first="Yaolong" last="Chen">Yaolong Chen</name><name sortKey="Chen, Yaolong" sort="Chen, Yaolong" uniqKey="Chen Y" first="Yaolong" last="Chen">Yaolong Chen</name><name sortKey="Chen, Yaolong" sort="Chen, Yaolong" uniqKey="Chen Y" first="Yaolong" last="Chen">Yaolong Chen</name><name sortKey="Du, Peipei" sort="Du, Peipei" uniqKey="Du P" first="Peipei" last="Du">Peipei Du</name><name sortKey="Feng, Xixi" sort="Feng, Xixi" uniqKey="Feng X" first="Xixi" last="Feng">Xixi Feng</name><name sortKey="He, Daihai" sort="He, Daihai" uniqKey="He D" first="Daihai" last="He">Daihai He</name><name sortKey="Li, Weiguo" sort="Li, Weiguo" uniqKey="Li W" first="Weiguo" last="Li">Weiguo Li</name><name sortKey="Li, Weiguo" sort="Li, Weiguo" uniqKey="Li W" first="Weiguo" last="Li">Weiguo Li</name><name sortKey="Liu, Enmei" sort="Liu, Enmei" uniqKey="Liu E" first="Enmei" last="Liu">Enmei Liu</name><name sortKey="Liu, Enmei" sort="Liu, Enmei" uniqKey="Liu E" first="Enmei" last="Liu">Enmei Liu</name><name sortKey="Wang, Xiaohui" sort="Wang, Xiaohui" uniqKey="Wang X" first="Xiaohui" last="Wang">Xiaohui Wang</name><name sortKey="Wu, Ziting" sort="Wu, Ziting" uniqKey="Wu Z" first="Ziting" last="Wu">Ziting Wu</name><name sortKey="Yang, Lin" sort="Yang, Lin" uniqKey="Yang L" first="Lin" last="Yang">Lin Yang</name><name sortKey="Yang, Shu" sort="Yang, Shu" uniqKey="Yang S" first="Shu" last="Yang">Shu Yang</name><name sortKey="Yu, Xuan" sort="Yu, Xuan" uniqKey="Yu X" first="Xuan" last="Yu">Xuan Yu</name><name sortKey="Zhou, Qi" sort="Zhou, Qi" uniqKey="Zhou Q" first="Qi" last="Zhou">Qi Zhou</name><name sortKey="Zhuang, Zian" sort="Zhuang, Zian" uniqKey="Zhuang Z" first="Zian" last="Zhuang">Zian Zhuang</name></country><country name="États-Unis"><noRegion><name sortKey="Wu, Ziting" sort="Wu, Ziting" uniqKey="Wu Z" first="Ziting" last="Wu">Ziting Wu</name></noRegion></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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